Business Valuation Model Based on the Analysis of Business Value Drivers

Vilma Kazlauskienė, Česlovas Christauskas

Abstract


In scientific literature value is referred to as the most complete and exact indicator of business condition that reflects changes in internal and external environment of an enterprise. In a dynamic environment where risk and uncertainty are inevitable attributes of the process of the enterprise’s business forecast, due to the change of various drivers, business value may fluctuate in a rather wide range. On one hand, risk and uncertainty prompt to think in terms of future scenarios and to anticipate the full range of value dimensions. On the other hand, the fluctuation of business value within a wide range predetermines the problematic aspect of rendering the final conclusion on business value. Since business value changes with the change of influencing drivers, the analysis of drivers that have impact on business value becomes urgent. Based on such an analysis it would be possible to calculate the most probable dimension of business value. In scientific literature focusing on the issues of business valuation the aspect of the analysis of business value drivers is discussed very fragmentally. Though researchers emphasise the importance of determining the impact of value drivers that influence the dimension of business value, there is no unified approach to the classification and investigation of these value drivers. The linear classifications of influencing business value drivers presented in the works of authors who explore the issues of business valuation are inconsistent and insufficient for the evaluation of business value drivers. Given a linear presentation of drivers it is difficult to see the interrelations of the influencing business value drivers and business value or to measure quantitatively the impact of change of business value drivers on business value. Having proved the limitation of linear classifications of influencing business value drivers, a classification of business value drivers was formed by grouping the drivers that have impact on business value in levels one to five. This classification is based on the decomposition of business value established by the method of discounted cash flows. Such a graded presentation of drivers enables to have an insight to the inter-relations of business value drivers and business value and to evaluate the impact of each driver change not only on the change of the business value but also on the change of a higher level driver. The analysis of scientific literature shows that references to the application of methods in establishing the impact of drivers on business value are very limited. It is not enough to lean upon the results of the sensitivity analysis, which is presented in scientific literature as the most widely used in determining the impact of drivers on business value, because it only enables to evaluate the impact of one driver change (increase/decrease) on business value, leaving aside possible change of other drivers. Since in a factual situation the change is usually present in more than one driver, there occurs a need to apply those methods of factorial analysis which would enable a complex evaluation of the impact of change of many drivers on the change of business value. By discovering the limitation of references to the methods that may be used for value drivers investigation as well as the complexity of these methods’ selection and application, the authors of this article propose for the establishment of the impact of business value drivers on business value to adapt the integral method of economic factorial analysis, which allowed to wholly evaluate the impact of different level drivers on business value. Theoretical and empirical researches resulted in the creation of a business valuation model based on the analysis of business value drivers, which incorporates the classification of business value drivers and the establishment of their impact on value into the process of business valuation, and enables to provide the final result of business valuation – a dimension of business value.


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Print ISSN: 1392-2785
Online ISSN: 2029-5839