Expert Estimation of the Ways for Creating Energy Security Potential in Latvia

Abstract

Object of the research is the condition of energy supply in Latvia. Goal of the research-analysis of data on electric energy production in Latvia and assessment of the ways of creation of the energy security potential of the country. Methods of the research are analysis of statistical data, methods of expertise. The leading producer and supplier of electric energy and heat in Latvia is JSC Latvenergo. One of the main aims is diversification of ways of energy resource supply to Latvia. The Ministry of Economic Affairs of Latvia plans by the year 2030 to decrease the volume of imported energy resources by 2 times and produce half of the energy by using own renewable energy sources. At present there is a discussion in Latvia about construction of another large hydro power plant with the output about 200 MW on river Daugava in the Daugavpils region. In the discussions the new HPP is considered as more ecological and economic alternative than construction of Visaginas Nuclear PP. The part of Latvenergo in the project of VNPP will correspond to 1 billion euro or 20% that will guarantee supply of not more than 275 MW of energy to Latvia. In Latvia there is a wide scatter of opinions about possible ways of development in future production of electric energy in the country. For analysis and elaboration of recommendations concerning the ways of forming the energy security potential in Latvia a method of expertise was used. The estimates obtained from the expert query show large difference in their opinions. Fuzzy Set Theory was used. The conducted analysis and the obtained results of mathematical processing by various methods of expert opinion make it possible to conclude the following: the most promising directions for electric energy industry development in Latvia and for creation, on this basis, of energy security potential of the country is construction of a HPP and heat power plants using the own energy resources. The direction of wind power energetics development is recognised as important.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.26.2.3327