Foresight Development Strategy of the Financial Capacity: Comparative Study of the Ukrainian Agricultural Sector

Abstract

The system of foresight methods is most often used to solve research problems that are distinguished from the continuity of historical chronology. The aim of our study is to search for new approaches to measuring, assessing and forecasting the economic and financial potential of the agricultural sector, in order to develop an adequate public administration strategy. We have set the task to answer what effect this trend will have for the agricultural sector and the economy of Ukraine in the coming years. We used normative-system analysis - an approach that allows to identify measures that stimulate or limit the implementation of a particular scenario for a particular research subject. This method is aimed at formulating policies and foresight strategies, which are implemented by calculating the financial potential of the agricultural industry. The basis of the research was the hypothesis that the financial potential of the macro level should be analyzed according to the current foresight strategy method, which involves (i) identifying the object of forecasting (agrarian sector), (ii) determining the essential conditions (targets that the financial potential for sustainable development should correspond to), (iii) scanning the environment (what resources and types of potential are related to financial), and (v) identifying alternatives and possible future scenarios (building a balance sheet of financial resources). The results of the statistical analysis suggested that the main determinants of the financial potential are:  the volumes, structure, and proportions of reproduction. Furthermore, the efficiency and strength of financial potential are compared with the main macroeconomic indicators of rural development. The results revealed that the necessity of state regulation of financial flows connected with the agrarian sector is substantiated by monitoring the process of forming financial flows in a number of key parameters with the aim of observing the equivalence of all management forms to financial resources. This research contributes to the previous literature on Ukraine context, where we proposed ways to improve the quality of financial potential, the conditions for its formation and distribution and redistribution in accordance with the National Concept for the Development of the Agrarian Sector (2015). Additionally, this research will pave the way for the adaptation of foreign experience, including international comparisons of financial flows and state support.