Cyclical and Structural Drivers of CO₂ Emissions in the European Countries. Annual Panel Evidence for 2000–2023

Raluca Mihaela Drăcea; Raluca Ignat; Carmen Lenuța Trică; Mihai Dinu; Chiva Marilena Papuc

doi:10.5755/j01.ee.37.4.43481

Authors

Raluca Mihaela Drăcea Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Raluca Ignat Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Carmen Lenuța Trică Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Mihai Dinu Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Chiva Marilena Papuc Bucharest University of Economic Studies

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.37.4.43481

Keywords:

Decarbonization, Sustainable Development, Energy Transition, Carbon Intensity, Environmental Performance, Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper analyses the innovation and regulatory-induced adjustments in European energy systems and their short-term effects on per capita CO₂ emissions for 28 European countries over the period 2000–2023. Empirically, first-difference panel models with country and year fixed effects and Driscoll–Kraay errors are used to capture annual within-country variations and control for common shocks. The results show that the normalized Shannon index, as a generic measure of diversity, has no short-term predictive power, while the actual composition of the energy mix and demand dynamics explain the annual variations in emissions at the sample level. Specifically, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of renewables is associated with approximately −0.85% in per capita CO₂, and a 1% reduction in the energy intensity of GDP corresponds to a decrease of approximately −0.70%. Through the estimated (semi)elasticities, the study provides operational benchmarks for the annual calibration of energy policies, but also for managerial decisions regarding investment timing, tariff design, and demand management under budgetary constraints.

Author Biographies

Raluca Mihaela Drăcea, Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Raluca Mihaela Drăcea is a Professor at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies (Faculty of Agri-Food and Environmental Economics), PhD supervisor, and member of the Council of the Doctoral School of Economics II. With 25+ years in academia, she has authored 15 books, 50+ journal articles, and 60+ conference papers. Her work focuses on financing regional and rural development projects, cost–benefit analysis, and sustainable development. She has also participated in national projects on carbon-footprint assessment, sustainability reporting, and the green transition in agri-food and environmental sectors, highlighting links between macroeconomic dynamics, fiscal policy, and environmental performance.
Raluca Ignat, Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Raluca Ignat is a Professor at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies and Director of the Agri-Food and Environmental Economics Department. Her research and teaching interests include entrepreneurship, management, quality of life, sustainability, and resilience. She has served as team member or project manager in 30+ publicly funded research projects at national and European level, including World Bank–supported grants. She currently serves as Project Director of a Romanian national programme on farm carbon-footprint assessment (farm-level GHG accounting, 2023–2026), focusing on sustainability practices and measurement of environmental performance in agriculture.
Carmen Lenuța Trică, Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Carmen Lenuța Trică is a Professor at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Department of Agri-Food and Environmental Economics. Her interests include sustainable development, environmental economics and policy, cost–benefit analysis, environmental impact assessment, and sustainability. In 2022 she contributed to a government evidence-based policy project to streamline waste legislation and simplify procedures in the climate-change sector, and she has been team leader or researcher in 30 research projects.
Mihai Dinu, Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Mihai Dinu is an Associate Professor of Rural and Regional Development at the Faculty of Agri-Food and Environmental Economics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies. His work spans sustainable development, rural entrepreneurship, and agri-food logistics and trade. His current research focuses on carbon-footprint reduction and on how cyclical and structural forces shape CO₂ emissions and environmental performance across European rural economies.
Chiva Marilena Papuc, Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Chiva Marilena Papuc is an Associate Professor at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies. Her research and teaching span economics, microeconomics, macroeconomics, and management.