Drivers of Yarn Exports in Türkiye: Anti-fragility and Stability in the Synthetic and Cotton Sectors

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.37.4.44109

Keywords:

Cotton Yarn Export, Synthetic Yarn Export, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Credit Default Swap, Quantile on Quantile Analysis, Türkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric and non-linear impacts of the real effective exchange rate (REER), inflation (INF), industrial production index (IPI), and credit default swap (CDS) premiums on Turkiye’s synthetic (SYN) and cotton yarn (CTN) exports. Covering data from January 2015 to August 2025, the research employs novel quantile-on-quantile kernel regularized least squares (QQKRLS) and quantile-on-quantile Granger causality (QQGC) methodologies to capture regime-dependent dynamics. Empirical results reveal a profound structural divergence: SYN exhibit 'anti-fragile' resilience during economic stress, whereas cotton yarns appear 'stability-dependent,' suffering from high inflation and risk uncertainty. QQKRLS analysis indicates that while REER enhances synthetic competitiveness, its impact on cotton yarn is threshold-dependent. Furthermore, QQGC findings confirm that causal relationships are highly sensitive to export regimes, with CDS premiums exerting dominant pressure during extreme risk periods. These findings suggest that the Turkish textile industry requires product-specific industrial strategies to effectively mitigate global economic volatility. By introducing the 'anti-fragility' framework to sectoral export analysis, this study highlights the necessity for product-specific, state-dependent strategies rather than a 'one-size-fits-all' approach to enhance industrial resilience in emerging markets.

Author Biographies

  • Kaan Diyarbakırlıoğlu, Yalova University

    Kaan Diyarbakırlıoğlu is an Associate Professor and a faculty member at Yalova University, where he specializes in international relations and political science, with a focus on global politics and regional dynamics. He holds a PhD in International Relations from Uludağ University and completed his Master’s in International Relations at Kadir Has University. His research explores topics such as post-Cold War geopolitics, foreign policy analysis, and regional power interactions. He has authored and edited academic works on globalization, international security, and regional political developments. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4511-5330

  • Sevdenur Kükrek, Yalova University, Istanbul Okan University

    Sevdenur Kukrek is a PhD Student at Department of International Trade and Finance, Institute of Graduate Studies, Yalova University and is currently a Research Assistant at Istanbul Okan University. She received her Bachelor’s degree in International Trade from Gazi University in 2018, graduating as the top student of her department. She completed her Master’s degree in International Economic Policy at Bursa Technical University in 2021, with a thesis on the effects of COVID-19 fear on social media and online shopping addiction. She has five years of professional experience as a foreign trade specialist in the textile industry. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4450-1715

  • Feyyaz Zeren, Yalova University

    Feyyaz Zeren is a Full Professor and a faculty member at Yalova University. He earned his Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration and completed both his Master’s and PhD in Accounting and Finance at Sakarya University. His primary research interests include financial markets, green finance, digital finance, environmental economics, energy economics, and time-series analysis. He specializes in applying advanced econometric methodologies to analyze complex economic and financial systems. He has published extensively on the intersection of macroeconomic variables and industrial performance in both national and international contexts.  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0163-5916

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Published

2026-10-30

Issue

Vol. 37 No. 4 (2026)

Section

Journal General Track