Dynamic SWOT Analysis as a Tool for System Experts

Abstract

The entities analyzed within multi-purpose and multidisciplinary areas are too complicated to be strictly quantitatively described. In such cases it is impossible to avoid verbal expert estimates. For the evaluation of system‘ s behaviour the mechanism of SWOT analysis, which enables to cope with the problems static, is frequently employed. A detailed modelling, monitoring and prediction require a certain level of dynamics. To achieve optimal system parameters, strengths and weaknesses should be under the influence of dynamics. In order the experts could affect them professionally, additional fuzzy situations and factors need to be analyzed. The most convenient tool to solve such a task today is to use the mechanism of fuzzy cognitive maps FCM. The article suggests combining the mechanisms of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and FCM (fuzzy cognitive maps) and indicates that such hybridization provides experts with a new tool of system analysis. The monitoring was modelled using FCM modelling package, developed in the Faculty of Computer Engineering in Kaunas University of Technology. The illustrated dynamic monitoring was carried out using various approaches. Experts select FCM elements of monitoring structure, their dependency on the total values of opportunities and threats, their impact on strengths and weaknesses of the system for the nodes being modelled. Thus, the experts complete a gradual evaluation of dynamics’ modelling and results.