Market Demand Forecasting Models and their Elements in the Context of Competitive Market

Abstract

Models of forecasting of market demand are analysed in the article and the general principles of these models formation in the context of competitive market are presented. Due to fast changing market conditions, intensive competition and necessity to solve relevant business bearing problems the demand of forecasting information connected with general market demand has increased. Mean experience of market demand forecasting in dynamic competitive market determines inaccurate results of the analysis of market demand and invalid decisions connected with companies’ activity. So it is considered to be especially relevant to compare present structures of market demand forecasting, and on that ground to form the principles of efficient forecasting of market demand in competitive market. The article starts with the analysis of conceptions of market demand forecasting and forecast while elaborating the conceptions of forecasting and forecast concretely. Later the analysis of market demand models and their specificity in the context of competitive market is presented. The surveys show that while researching the models of forecasting of market demand different opinions arise: some theorists maintain that the forecast of market demand is a concurrent part of forecasting of demand for a company’s products, whereas the others are sure that the exact forecast of market demand is impossible without an assessment of macroenvironment (external environment) or economic forecasting. The models of market demand forecasting, which are described in economic literature, are often intermittent, the consistency of the performance of forecasting is not clear. They also analyze limited number (often depending on the forecasting purpose) of the factors, which influence the competitive aspects of market demand. Sometimes the forecasting of market demand is based only on the choice of forecasting method and the analysis of the use in a concrete situation. The final actions of forecasting and assessment of completed forecasts accuracy is not often supposed. This determines roughness of the models of market demand forecasting and limited practical use in competitive market. With the reference to surveys of the models of market demand forecasting and their elements found in academic literature and given assessment of them, the model of market demand forecasting is considered to be a manystaged arrangement and relation between parts (elements), which aim to predict and assess the market demand and the tendencies of its alternation in competitive market in future. Not only the aspects of use of forecasting method are important for efficient market demand forecasting in competitive market but also how market demand is affected by the factor of forecasting frame. Formation of market demand’s forecasts based only on potentials of mathematical statistical method does not often take into account the influence of qualitative factors of competitive market demand and economic characteristics of market model. In pursuance of efficient forecasting of market demand in competitive market, it is recommended to combine an assessment of market demand emphasizing factors of business macroenvironment and the frame of industrial market and forecasting, which is based on quantitative analysis of information; to include into forecasting model such factors as aims and goals, assessment of the frame of market forecasting, selection of the method of market demand forecasting and forecast of market demand making.