Effect of Demographic Changes on the Labour Supply in Lithuania and Poland
Keywords:demographic projection, labour force participation, labour market, population ageing, potential labour resources
Demographic changes are one of the variables impacting labour supply. When viewing the situation on labour markets, not only quantitative changes in the total population size are significant, but also changes in the population categorised by economic age groups. International research indicates that the population size is decreasing. These processes translate into labour markets experiencing deficiencies in labour force. To counteract and minimise these undesirable conditions, continuous monitoring and diagnosis of the status of labour resources is required. This paper aims to evaluate the impact of demographic changes in labour supply based on the example of the Lithuanian and Polish labour markets and to redefine the groups of people forming unused labour resources. To this end, both secondary and primary data were used. The former were derived from statistical reports originating from the analysed countries, while the latter were obtained from the author’s own studies carried out among 200 respondents classified as unused labour resources. The research found that in the labour markets of both studied countries, very significant changes have occurred and will continue to occur, which may lead to the reduction in the productive-age population and to the increase in the post-productive-age population. The research has been carried out based on the systematic literature review methodology, which included theoretical and empirical research publications from 2000-2019, a diagnostic survey conducted among people classified as unused labour resources, as well as methods of descriptive statistics and induction. The literature review has demonstrated a shortage of studies on the subject of research, which makes the content of the paper a partial answer to the existing knowledge gap.