European Tourism Between Economic Prosperity and Green Pressures: Multidimensional Analysis of Resilience and Sustainability
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.37.1.41761Keywords:
Tourism Resilience, Environmental Sustainability, Seasonality, Tourist Expenditure, Economic FreedomAbstract
This paper analyses tourism influence on growth and environment in the EU27 for the period 2009-2024, integrating tourism-specific factors (seasonality, tourist revenues, tourist expenditures per trip, international arrivals, the share of tourism in total exports) along with macroeconomic and institutional variables (economic freedom, state investments in education, unemployment rate). We have approached tourism from two angles: economic (in terms of resilience) and ecological (in terms of environmental sustainability), applying multiple linear regression (MLR) and structural equation models (SEM), based on Pearson correlations. Tourism simultaneously and antagonistically influences the environment's resilience and sustainability. Tourist expenditure per trip, revenues from international tourism, the marginal effect of tourist flows, or tourist attractiveness, the market's freedom supports resilience, but not the share of tourism in total exports. Environmental sustainability is positively supported by market freedom and negatively endorsed by the tourist expenditure per trip. Seasonality appears as a reliable solution for both environmental sustainability and resilience. The results indicate no statistically significant effects of unemployment and education, and reveal that tourism dependency entails risks to resilient growth. Nevertheless, tourism remains essential for European economic prosperity. Reducing green pressure involves a series of concessions on seasonality and directing tourism revenues toward technologies and practices that reduce the carbon footprint. The novelty lies in the integrated approach to resilience and sustainability, highlighting the ambivalent impact of tourism, and showing that seasonality is rather a structural policy tool than a constraint in the simultaneous achievement of environmental and resilience objectives, offering insights with direct implications for European tourism development policies.



